My dad once told me "it's always human error, machines work as intended" but that brings an interesting thought to mind with the focus now being on AI. How can we create a good model of AI if there are inherent biases in our cognitive/societal thinking.
Example: Explain the following screenshots and ask yourself what could have caused this to happen?
I do not have the answers here, just thinking outloud.
I was recently having a conversation with some old coworkers about Alex Caruso. Our chat consists of me (Warriors fan), L (Lakers fan) and M (Clippers fan). M loves to jab at L on how terrible the Lakers are at roster decisions and he can't get over the fact that they let Caruso leave instead of resigning him.
This made me think of how important Caruso really would be to a franchise and I stumbled on what I think might be the most important contribution that a player like Caruso brings to his team. I wasted 1 hour of my life looking at this and pondering if I had stumbled on a secret equation on how NBA Champions are determined. This is the THWG Postulate.
Full Disclosure: The NBA is a game of athleticism and skill, both of these things is what gets you to the finals. Having more of those 2 qualities helps you win more games in the 82 game regular season and increases the chances you have to win 12 games in the playoffs and make it to the NBA Finals. However this theory is taking a look at Finals matchups only, where there is a maximum of 7 games (very small sample size) and the mounting pressure that players feel as the series goes on increases exponentially (the pressure impacts performance), that this is where the THWG has the biggest impact to elevate the play of your team by sheer effort and willingness to leave everything on the court.
Try Hard White Guy Postulate:
First lets define what qualifies as a THWG. This refers to a basketball player who gets results more due to effort (energy) than skill. Salary compensation does not impact a players ability to qualify as a THWG and even though the acronym has "white" in it, racial status does not disqualify anyone from this category. In order to qualify as a THWG it all comes down to Attitude, and Effort. Athleticism could be argued is part of an NBA players skill, ergo the THWG mantra of attitude + effort > athleticism. So let's define both ATTITUDE and EFFORT before we proceed to look at our roster analysis of previous champions.
Attitude: The player in question here must have their ego in check. One of the main factors here is if you think you are really good, it removes that chip on your shoulder that gives player the edge in the amount of effort they put on the court at all times. What we are really saying here is if you think you are really good, you probably don't try as hard as often. Example: Grayson Allen & Tyler Herro types do not qualify. We're not arguing how good Tyler Herro is, that doesn't matter. What matters is that Herro thinks and plays like he's really good, therefore he does not qualify as a THWG. Grayson Allen has much less skill than Herro buuuuut, his ego is still larger than his actual skill which means again, no chip on his shoulder to "try hard" which means he does not qualify for THWG status.
Effort: The core value of this category is that this player archetype brings energy to the team and the rest of the team tends to rally behind their effort. How can you not play hard when the dude who has much less skill than you is trying so hard? Essentially, they raise the floor of your team so the big ego players realize they need to be trying just as hard as the THWG. The best example of this would be Mark Madsen. Who doesn't remember the exuberance and effort of his minimal minutes, the way the bench would rally when he was in the game and the level of excitement and joy from his teammates when his effort resulted in a positive play for the team? Another more recent example would be Kevin Love in Game 7 of the 2016 Finals. Does he have skill? Of course Kevin Love has skill. But if you watched game 7 in 2016, you will see that Kevin Love upped his effort and transformed himself (for one game only) into a THWG. The simple qualification for a THWG is ATTITUDE + EFFORT > SKILL which I'd argue was the embodiment of Love's game 7 finals performance vs. the Warriors.
Now lets look at previous champions and look at their rosters to see if the balance of who wins a chip is really determined by THWGs on your roster and the number of minutes the THWGs played.
2022 NBA Championship: Warriors > Celtics
Warriors: 352 total min of THWGs, Klay Thompson (230 min), Gary Payton II (93 min), Nemanja Bjelica (29 min)
Celtics: 279 total min of THWGs, Derrick White (159 min), Payton Pritchard (67 min), Aaron Nesmith (16 min), Luke Kornet (6 min), Sam Hauser (11 min), Daniel Thies (20 min)
Simply put, the Warriors are cheating here. Klay had not recovered completely from his devastating injuries by the time the 2022 championship rolled around and he relied a lot more on effort than skill. If you rewatch the series you will see Wiggins and Green taking all the tough defensive assignments and Klay consistently giving up buckets when he defended Tatum and Brown. Unfortunately for the Celtics, Klay was more effort than skill which qualified him as a THWG, thus tilting the balance of this series to the Warriors. Good side note, Derrick White is a great example of a THWG. A lot of effort, gets hot and hits a bunch of 3's in a game sometimes and makes you forget he's a career 34% 3pt shooter. So he fools you into thinking he's got skill but when you really analyze it, he is truly a THWG.
2021 NBA Championship: Bucks > Suns
Bucks: 202 total min of THWGs, Pat Connaughton (180 min), Bryn Forbes (22 min)
Suns: 29 total min of THWGs, Frank Kaminsky (29 min)
This one is tough because there are so many borderline THWGs on both rosters. Brook Lopez? Amazing attitude and max effort every min he is on the court. But when you think about the definition of THWG (effort + attitude > skill) even with his excellent effort he has quite a lot of skill as an NBA player (great defense, solid outside shooting). Similar issue for Bobby Portis, much less skill than Brook but his effort and attitude are still less than his skills on the court. Same goes for both Cameron's on the Suns. So it really came down to the fact that the Suns came into the series solely depending on Frank Kaminsky to carry the THWG mantle. Making the 4-2 Bucks win surprising in the sense that it was not a 4-1 or 4-0 series.
2020 NBA Championship: Lakers > Heat
Lakers: Alex Caruso (149 min)
Heat: Kelly Olynyk (114 min)
Here we go! Two of the best current THWGs facing each other in the finals and the Lakers gave Caruso more minutes to tilt the balance of this series in their favor. And I hear you Heat fans, what about Meyers Leonard? Would be a TWHG if he tried as hard on the hardwood as he does in CoD. what about Tyler Herro? Lets be honest here, when he does the Kobe mean mug look that tells you his ego thinks he belongs on the super start level which is an indicator of not having the "try hard all the times" chip on a player's shoulder. What about Andre Igoudala??? Perfect example of someone who (because of his diminished skill) definitely brings a lot of attitude + effort but the skill is so low at this point in his career that he doesn't make the THWG cut. This probably needs additional statistical analysis but is Caruso a THWG first ballot HOFer?
2019 NBA Championship: Raptors > Warriors
Raptors: Fred VanVleet (195 min)
Warriors: Jonas Jerebko (26 min)
Most people would argue that injuries cost the Warriors this championship but let's not forget that the Raptors won Game 1 by 9, lost Game 2 by 5, won Game 3 by 14, won Game 4 by 13, lost Game 5 by 1 and then Klay got hurt in Game 6. Yes, the Warriors could have won Game 6 and anything can happen in a Game 7 but if you re-watched the entire series you would see the same thing as the 2020 championship, a THWG future HOFer make a huge difference and in this series his name is Fred VanVleet. Most Raptors fans would argue that FVV is actually good and has "skill" but lets not be fooled by his "try hard"-iness. Remember our simple equation of Attitude + Effort > Skill and let's take a deeper look. He averaged 32 min a game - 14 pts - 2.7 reb - 2.2 assists - 1.2 steals. That's a lot of floor time for very little output if you ask me. 34 year old Marc Gasol averaged 12 pts and 2.7 assists and grabbed a lot more rebounds. Add that FVV is a career 37% 3pt shooter got (barely better than average) and we have a HOF definition of THWG. We could play the "maybe" game and say that if Durant is healthy the Warriors win easily. Well how about "maybe" if the Warriors had better THWGs on the roster they also win easily? Can't prove either of those hypotheticals correct so we are stuck in the reality that an elite THWG (Fred VanVleet) tilted the balance of this series to the Raptors.
2018 NBA Championship: Warriors > Cavaliers
Warriors: 100 total min of THWGs, JaVale McGee (55 min), Zaza Pachulia (6 min)
Cavs: 0 min of THWGs
Was this Warriors team awesome? Yes. Did the THWGs impact the series? Doubt it. But how can THWGs impact the series when one of the teams does not have any on their roster? Yes Kevin Love channeled his inner THWG in Game 7 of 2016 but he lost that edge after he became a champion. Looking at the rest of the Cavs roster, could we call George Hill, Rodney Hood, Tristan Thompson, Larry Nance, Jeff Green, Jordan Clarkson, Kyle Korver or Ante Zizic are THWGs? I'd argue the first 2 don't give enough effort relative to their skill, TT has the attitude to match his skill but not enough constant effort, Nance, Green and Clarkson all think they are too good to try hard enough to be a THWG, Korver's skill had diminished to the point he could be a THWG but let's be honest, he is very slow at this stage of his career to qualify as a THWG. The only one who might qualify is Ante Zizic but unfortunately the Cavs only let him play 5 min total. Again very hard to win when your roster has 0 THWG contributors or you don't let your THWGs on the floor.
2017 NBA Championship: Warriors > Cavaliers
Warriors: 88 total min of THWGs, JaVale McGee (22 min), Zaza Pachulia (66 min)
Cavs: 0 min of THWGs
Very little analysis needed here as it's just another year of a clear imbalance in talent on the rosters between THWG qualifiers. One team, entering the finals with a dynamic duo, blows out the other that just couldn't keep up in regard to the THWG level. Now one might argue, how is JaVale a THWG and Zaza is just a dirty player and doesn't try very hard. Here are my counter arguments. Have you seen the JaVale blooper reel? It wouldn't be funny if he wasn't actually trying to hard! So never question JaVale's effort on the court. In regard to Zaza, you can't be a dirty player unless you are trying hard to be at the right spot at the right time to make the dirty play. What I mean is, you have to be giving a lot of effort so you can be there in time to put your foot underneath a player who just shot the ball (just ask Kawhi). If he wasn't a THWG he would never be at the right place at the right time.
2016 NBA Championship: Cavaliers > Warriors
Cavs: 76 total min of THWGs, Matthew Dellavedova (46 min), Kevin Love (30 min in Game 7)
Warriors: Anderson Verajao (41 min)
This series is remembered for the nut punch and Draymond's suspension and I agree that the likelihood Warriors win in 6 is significantly better without the nut punch. But the real MVP of this series is Kevin Love's one game transformation, channeling his inner Mark Madsen and carrying the torch from his teammate Delly (who did not play a single minute in Game 7) and flailing his arms on defense, exhibiting maximum effort the entire game and carrying his team to victory. Look at the box score and you'll see. Lebron +4, Kyrie +10, JR + 7, TT +2, Jefferson -8, Shumpert -9, Mo -5 AND Kevin Love +19. The only number that looks like an aberration is Kevin Love, the THWG GOAT for game clinching performance. Plus the Warriors previous THWGs 9 (see below) lost their edge, the chip on their shoulder, after winning the title in 2015 and we'll talk them below in the 2015 analysis.
2015 NBA Championship: Warriors > Cavaliers
Warriors: 227 total min of THWGs, Leandro Barbosa (64 min), Festus Ezeli (50 min), David Lee (39 min), Andrew Bogut (74 min)
Cavs: Matthew Dellavedova (191 min)
In a different world, Delly could have been a back to back THWG NBA champion which would easily make him a top 10 all time THWG. Historically it has been very very difficult to maintain your THWG effort and attitude AFTER winning a championship. Only the elite of the elite can do this and the only thing that kept Delly from joining such an elite club was the group effort of the Warriors bench players. David Lee and Andrew Bogut had been all-stars in previous years, however this was the series where the Warriors death lineup was created (Game 4) and you'll see the series swing the Warriors way once both David Lee and Andrew Bogut were assigned to THWG only duties which turned the series in the Warriors favor. How humbling must it be to be an NBA All Star, relegated to the bench in the Finals and still have attitude + effort > skill?
**For the remainder of these I will just put up names & # of minutes. I think you get the drift of this THWG analysis
2014 NBA Championship: Spurs > Heat
Spurs: 241 total min of THWGs, Boris Diaw, Marco Belinelli, Aaron Baynes
Heat: 196 total min of THWGs, Chris Andersen, Norris Cole, Udonis Haslem
2013 NBA Championship: Heat > Spurs
Heat: 217 total min of THWGs, Chris Andersen, Norris Cole, Udonis Haslem
Spurs: 130 total min of THWGs, Boris Diaw, Matt Bonner
2012 NBA Championship: Heat > Thunder
Heat: 125 total min of THWGs, Chris Andersen, Norris Cole
Thunder: Nick Collison (83 min)
2011 NBA Championship: Mavs > Heat
Mavs: JJ Barrea (128 min)
Heat: Mike Bibby (87 min)
2010 NBA Championship: Lakers > Celtics
Lakers: 171 total min of THWGs, Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, Luke Walton
Celtics: Nate Robinson (71 min)
2009 NBA Championship: Lakers > Magic
Lakers: 155 total min of THWGs, Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, Luke Walton
Magic: 118 total min of THWGs, Marcin Gortat, JJ Reddick
2008 NBA Championship: Celtics > Lakers
Celtics: 487 total min of THWGs, James Posey, Leon Powe, Eddie House, Kendrick Perkins, PJ Brown
Lakers: 441 total min of THWGs, Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, Luke Walton, Vladimir Radmanovic
